Early Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

I have already made my early Best Supporting Actress predictions on the blog which you can find here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We now move forward with Supporting Actor where I’ll list the possible nominees as I see ’em with my five predictions. Right now, there seems to be only one sure-fire nominee and that would be Michael Fassbender in Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, which screened to raves at Telluride over the weekend. He appears to be in and should stay there. After that, it’s murky. Tom Hanks could possibly be nominated for lead Actor in Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips and in this category playing Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. If Banks is well-regarded, his chances seem excellent. Matthew McConaughey is another potential double nominee. In lead Actor, his chances for November’s Dallas Buyer’s Club are high. However, his chances for either Mud or Wolf of Wall Street in this race could happen too. Speaking of Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jared Leto looks to have quite a juicy role in the picture and he’s on the radar. Jonah Hill is said to be the standout in Wolf of Wall Street and he could score his second nomination in two years after 2011’s Moneyball. Bennett Miller’s upcoming Foxcatcher is a head scratcher at press time. No one’s seen it. There’s no trailer. However, director Miller has had his last two pics (Capote and Moneyball) score nods for his cast. That means Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum could land nominations. The film’s star Steve Carell could be nominated here, too, but it’s unclear whether the studio will push him for Lead. Due to the uncertainty, I’m leaving them all off for now, but any one of them could return when I update predictions. Director David O. Russell is another filmmaker who gets his actors nominated and that could bode well for either Bradley Cooper or Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity looks to be a shoo-in for Best Picture and probably Sandra Bullock for Actress and the love could certainly extend to George Clooney for his supporting role. John Goodman has been a respected actor for years but he’s never been noticed by the Academy. That could change with Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. Relative newcomer Daniel Bruhl is said to be a bright spot in Ron Howard’s upcoming Formula One racing pic Rush. Josh Brolin could be in the mix for his role in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Jake Gyllenhall is already being touted for a “career-best” performance in Prisoners. Javier Bardem looks to have a cool role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Benedict Cumberbatch (who received positive notices this summer in Star Trek Into Darkness) could be recognized for August: Osage County. 

Bottom line: this race is very unpredictable right now, with the exception of Fassbender’s nomination. Here’s my predictions with a further prediction: this list is likely to change over the next four months.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): Now that I’ve predicted Tom Hanks will be nominated in the lead Actor category for Captain Phillips, I’m having a harder time putting him down in this category for Saving Mr. Banks. Therefore, I’m substituting Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher at press time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back with Best Actress in short order.

Bottom line?