And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.
I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).
Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:
BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):
Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…
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