Box Office Predictions: March 22-24

Three new high-profile titles plus a film that surprised box office analysts in limited release last weekend all go wide in a busy weekend.

The two-week reign of Oz The Great and Powerful is likely to come to a close as Dreamworks animated The Croods opens. The film, featuring the voices of Nicolas Cage and Emma Stone, has had an aggressive marketing campaign. It’s not Disney and shouldn’t do Disney level numbers, but animation sells. The Croods could make anywhere between $30 million (which would be highly disappointing) to $55 million (unlikely and anything over that number would be fantastic news for Dreamworks). A gross in the middle of that range is what I foresee.

Speaking of aggressive marketing campaigns, I admit to being quite impressed by Film District’s selling of Olympus Has Fallen, an action thriller with Gerard Butler, Aaron Eckhart, Morgan Freeman, and Senator Ashley Judd. Olympus is the first of two action flicks this year about the White House being taken over by bad guys. This one is likely to make less than the other one, White House Down (opening summer) with Channing Tatum and Jamie Foxx. Still, reviews for Olympus have been surprisingly positive and the trailers are solid. I look for the pic to make over $20 million for the weekend and could perhaps even get close to $30 million.

Last weekend, Steve Carell’s comedy The Incredible Burt Wonderstone bombed with an anemic $10.3 million opening. This weekend, his Date Night co-star Tina Fey and Anchorman co-star Paul Rudd may experience a similar result. Their comedy Admission really seems to be flying under the radar screen and critics haven’t been too kind. Even with the talent involved (like Wonderstone), I am predicting the makers of Admission will be displeased with the amount of moviegoers paying admission to see it.

Rounding out the newcomers opening wide is Spring Breakers, a comic thriller with James Franco, Selena Gomez, and Vanessa Hudgens. The indie film debuted to impressive results when it opened in limited release in New York and L.A. last weekend. It opens on a relatively small 1000 screens approximately now. For comparison’s sake, Croods opens on nearly 4,000 and Olympus on around 3,000. Still, Breakers could have a nice little opening on its limited number of screens and give Oz star Franco another hit for 2013.

As for Oz itself, the picture enters its third weekend with some real competition for the younger crowd. It dipped 48% in its second weekend (a decent hold) and I expect just a slightly bigger dip this frame.

Finally, the Halle Berry thriller The Call totally exceeded expectations in its opening last weekend, grossing an impressive $17.1 million. Audiences seem to like it and I expect a good hold for it as well.

With that, my predictions for a big weekend at the box office:

1. The Croods

Predicted Gross: $44.3 million

2. Olympus Has Fallen

Predicted Gross: $27.8 million

3. Oz The Great and Powerful

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. The Call

Predicted Gross: $10 million (representing a drop of 42%)

5. Admission

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million

6. Spring Breakers

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

Be sure to check back through the weekend for updates and on Sunday for final results!