Box Office Predictions: February 22-24

With two new releases opening this weekend that no one seems overly enthusiastic about, it appears that it will be a rather quiet weekend at the box office financially. That doesn’t make the competition any less interesting. As I see it, there are four films that have legitimate shots at taking the #1 spot.

For the newcomers, we start with the action drama Snitch starring The Rock. Early reviews have actually been fairly decent and the lead has certainly had his share of hits. A lot of those of those moneymakers have been kids films and also Fast Five, a continuation of that franchise that would have made bank with or without The Rock’s involvement. The picture has been well-publicized and it may not hurt that the actor has gained exposure lately in the WWE, but I’m skeptical. This doesn’t seem like a movie to rush out and go see in the theater. Anything above $15 million would probably be a pleasant surprise for the studio. I don’t see it happening, but ya never know. It could surprise and open at the top.

It’s the weekend’s other new release that represents the biggest question mark for me: the PG-13 supernatural horror flick Dark Skies, starring Keri Russell. These types of pictures have a very recent history of grossing far more in their openings weekends than anticipated. It’s happened twice just in 2013 with Texas Chainsaw 3D and Mama. I believe there are differences with Skies. While Chainsaw has a brand name and Mama majorly appealed to a female audience, neither is likely to apply here. I actually think the film’s trailer is decent, however. Dark Skies has the potential to open much bigger than my estimate… like, much bigger. It could be #1. And to show you just how uncertain I am about this one, I wouldn’t be shocked if it opened quite a bit lower. This one’s a mystery.

Last weekend, we saw four movies open and now we’ll see how they hold up in their second go-rounds. The President’s Day weekend champ A Good Day to Die Hard actually opened a bit below most expectations (including mine). Its harsh reviews may have hindered its potential. Audiences actually seemed to like it well enough (it earned a B+ CinemaScore grade). The fifth John McClane could drop 50% or more, but I’m not so sure it’ll fall that far. It also could be #1 for the second week in a row.

The romantic drama Safe Haven exceeded most expectations (though it opened right around my estimate). This movie’s problem could be that it seemed tailor-made for Valentine’s Day weekend. It could experience a hefty drop.

The animated Escape from Planet Earth performed quite well and blew past my prediction. I actually expect this to have the smallest drop of any of the returning contenders.

Then there’s Beautiful Creatures, which I won’t even bother to make a projection on since it seems very unlikely to stay in the top six. It bombed at the box office and should continue to fade.

Finally, this brings us to Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief, now entering its third weekend. I have underestimated this film from the start. It opened way bigger two weeks than I thought and in its second weekend, it didn’t dropped as far as I figured. If Snitch and Dark Skies do not break out of the pack and Die Hard doesn’t surprise with a smaller than expected drop, there is a possibility that Thief will return to the top spot over the weekend. And that, my friends, is precisely what I’m predicting will occur.

Here are my predictions for this weekend’s box office:

1. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 37%)

2. A Good Day to Die Hard

Predicted Gross: $14.1 million (representing a drop of 43%)

3. Snitch

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Escape from Planet Earth

Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 30%)

5. Dark Skies

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million

6. Safe Haven

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million (representing a drop of 53%)

As always, expect updates throughout the weekend and final numbers with my analysis on Sunday!